In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

Geopolitical Hotspots: From Ukraine to Taiwan and Beyond:

Here are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week that Was:

• Russia-Ukraine

• Russian Jets Down U.S. Drone

• Putin’s Plans for Moldova Released

• China Brokers Iran-Saudi deal

• ChatGPT predicts 2028 invasion of Taiwan

• North Korea Fires Long Range ICBM

• Taiwan Warns Honduras of dealing with China

• AUKUS Deal Revealed

• Mexico Threatens Information Campaign against U.S.

Key Takeaways:

Russian Fighter Jets Intercept U.S. Drone in Black Sea: Escalating Tensions between Russia and U.S.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu presented awards to pilots of two SU-27 fighter planes that intercepted a U.S. drone near the airspace around Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the drone had violated airspace restrictions that Russia had made public in connection with its special military operation in Ukraine. He also said the Russian planes did not make physical contact with the drone. However, the U.S. military disputed these claims, stating that the Russian fighter planes approached the MQ-9 Reaper drone during a reconnaissance mission over the Black Sea in international airspace, harassed the drone, and sprayed fuel on it in an encounter lasting 30-40 minutes before one clipped the drone's propeller, causing it to crash into the sea.

The incident marks the first known direct military encounter between Russia and the U.S. since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. The Pentagon released a 40-second edited video showing a Russian fighter jet coming close to a U.S. military drone in the air, dumping fuel near it, and a damaged propeller in the aftermath. The top U.S. general commented that the incident demonstrated Moscow’s increasingly aggressive behavior.

This event is likely to further escalate tensions between Russia and the U.S., which have been strained in recent years. Russia's military aggression in Ukraine has been a point of contention between the two nations, and this incident is likely to increase concerns about Russia's willingness to engage in a direct military confrontation with the U.S. The U.S. may respond by increasing its military presence in the region or taking other measures to counter Russian aggression. The situation will continue to be closely monitored by international observers.

Moldova No Longer Receiving Russian Gas, Thanks to European Bank Credits

Moldova recently announced it is no longer receiving Russian gas or facing blackmail by gas giant Gazprom. The country's energy minister, Victor Parlicov, explained that Gazprom has been supplying gas only to Moldova's Russian-backed Transnistria separatist region since December - with none going to central authorities in Chisinau. Parlicov further explained that Moldova was able to secure European supplies thanks to 300 million euros ($318 million) in credits from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

This move marks a significant shift for Moldova, which has been heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies for many years. However, the country has been able to secure European supplies and avoid the "blackmail" imposed by Gazprom over its difficulties in paying for supplies. Parlicov also mentioned that Transnistria has never paid Gazprom for the gas it receives, and the Russian company had allowed this for 30 years to keep the pro-Russian region from collapsing.

Moldova has accused Russia of plotting to destabilize it, and the presence of pro-Russian separatists on its doorstep has added to the country's challenges. Moldova is one of Europe's poorest countries, and accumulated arrears for the Moldovagaz company in the rest of Moldova stand at $709 million. In contrast, Transnistria channels funds from gas bills paid by domestic and industrial users to a "gas account" used to cover some of its substantial budget deficits. The sum of Transnistria's unpaid bills for Russian gas is estimated by Moldovan officials at several billion dollars.

Overall, this development marks a significant shift in Moldova's energy policies, and the country is likely to continue exploring alternative sources of energy to avoid reliance on Russian gas in the future. The situation in Transnistria is also likely to remain a significant challenge for the country given the region's ongoing dependence on Russian gas supplies and political ties to Moscow.

Chinese Scientists Study U.S. Missile Defense System's Potential Weakness

Chinese scientists are examining a potential weakness in the U.S. missile defense system. According to a Chinese study, a North Korean missile could reach the U.S. in 33 minutes if the U.S. fails to intercept it. The findings of the Chinese study on the potential weakness of the U.S. missile defense system carry significant geopolitical implications. The study could be seen as a warning to the U.S. to improve its defense capabilities.

From a Chinese perspective, this study may be viewed as a way to exert pressure on the U.S. and its allies in the region. China has long been concerned about the presence of U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific region and sees the U.S. missile defense system as a potential threat to its own security.

Furthermore, the study underscores the growing strategic importance of North Korea in the Asia-Pacific region. North Korea's nuclear program has long been a major concern for the U.S. and its allies in the region, and the Chinese study adds to fears that the North Korean regime could launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. or its allies.

The study also highlights the importance of missile defense in the broader context of strategic competition between the U.S. and China. As China continues to modernize its military and expand its strategic reach, the U.S. is likely to invest more in missile defense and other defensive capabilities to counter China's growing military power.

Overall, the Chinese study on the potential weakness of the U.S. missile defense system is a reminder of the complex and rapidly evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region and the ongoing competition between the U.S. and China for strategic influence and dominance.

China Angered By AUKUS Agreement

The recent announcement by the UK, the U.S., and Australia regarding their multibillion-dollar deal to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines has generated a strong negative reaction from China. Wang Wenbin, China's foreign ministry spokesperson, accused the allies of "walking further and further down the path of error and danger," while the Chinese mission to the UN accused the three countries of fueling an arms race. The deal is seen as a response to the perceived threat from China in the Indo-Pacific region, where China has been expanding its military capabilities, including the deployment of nuclear-powered submarines.

However, Chinese state media has accused the AUKUS partners of violating the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) by transferring nuclear technology to a non-nuclear state like Australia. The deal relies on a loophole in the NPT, which allows for fissile material used for non-explosive military use to be exempt from monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This has raised concerns that the deal could escalate tensions in the region and trigger an arms race.

The AUKUS deal is part of a broader movement by western countries and their allies to secure the Indo-Pacific against China's military assertiveness. The UK recently published a refresh of its defense and foreign policy. It stated that "China poses an epoch-defining challenge to the type of international order we want to see, both in terms of security and values." The U.S. has also pursued an Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering what it sees as coercion and aggression from China. The Quad, an alliance between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, also aims to build a bulwark against China's military assertiveness in the region.

China's increasing amphibious weaponry is of particular concern to its neighbors, as it would be key to an assault on Taiwan. China has repeatedly accused the West of engaging in a "cold war mentality," while the U.S. has accused China of military aggression and expansionism. The AUKUS deal could potentially push the region closer to conflict, as China perceives itself as being surrounded by hostile neighbors. As a result, China is likely to increase its military activities in the region, and there is a possibility of a regional arms race; which would have far-reaching geopolitical implications.

Stay safe out there.