Geopolitical Update: Monday, December 2, 2024:

Syria’s Civil War Reignites: Rebel Surge Exposes Assad’s Fragile Grip on Power

🎯 BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Syria has reached a historic inflection point with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. After over 50 years of Assad family rule, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has taken control of Damascus and much of the country. HTS claims to have reformed itself, but skepticism persists given its extremist roots. The group now faces the monumental task of governing a fractured, war-torn nation.

Iran and Russia, longtime backers of Assad, are grappling with strategic setbacks. Iran’s unwillingness to support Assad, as rebels marched through the country, reflects the growing strain on its regional ambitions. Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has weakened its ability to project power in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the United States finds itself in a complex position: while HTS is officially designated a terrorist organization, its success effectively ended the Assad regime, a staunchly anti-American government that opposed U.S. operations in Syria.

This development carries significant implications for the rivalry between the Global West and the Global South. The fall of Assad challenges the authoritarian model promoted by Russia, casting doubt on Moscow’s ability to sustain allied regimes. For the United States, this moment invites a reevaluation of its approach to the Middle East, as HTS's rise underscores the region's intricate dynamics and the unintended consequences of indirect engagement.

The situation is still volatile in Syria, and this is a moment of truth for the global order. If HTS were to revert to its ideological origins with Al-Qaeda, Syria risks slipping back into authoritarianism. On the other hand, an inclusive political process with representatives from all walks of life in the drafting of a new constitution could be the pathway towards a more democratic Syria. Such a development could be a turning point toward restoring stability and fostering collaboration across a deeply fractured Middle East.

📌 Context

For over five decades, the Assad family maintained control over Syria through repression, economic patronage, and key alliances with Iran and Russia. Bashar al-Assad, who assumed power in 2000, faced a turning point during the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. These protests rapidly escalated into a brutal civil war, fragmenting the nation and attracting regional and global interventions.

Iran provided Assad with military advisors, funding, and support from Hezbollah, while Russia’s decisive 2015 intervention secured key victories for the regime, including the recapture of Aleppo. In return, Moscow gained long-term leases on military bases in Syria, securing strategic influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, despite this external support, corruption, low morale in Assad’s forces, and economic decline eroded the regime’s strength.

HTS emerged from the chaos of the civil war as a dominant opposition force. Initially an al-Qaeda affiliate, it rebranded in 2016 under Jolani, claiming to sever ties with global jihadism. The group established governance structures in Idlib and demonstrated an ability to provide basic services. However, its authoritarian practices and Islamist roots have fueled international mistrust.

The regime’s collapse was catalyzed by a confluence of factors, including Iran’s reduced support, Russia’s focus on Ukraine, and the rapid advances of HTS-led rebel forces. Assad’s departure to Moscow underscores his dependency on external backers, while Russia and Iran’s diminished involvement reflects broader shifts in regional power dynamics.

🕵️ Analysis

• HTS and Governance Challenges: HTS now controls a vast territory and faces the challenge of transitioning from an insurgency to a governing authority. Jolani’s efforts to portray the group as reformed are crucial but insufficient without concrete actions that foster inclusivity, protect minority religious members, and rebuild national institutions.

• Geopolitical Fallout for Russia: Assad’s fall deals a blow to Moscow’s prestige and its broader strategy of backing authoritarian allies to assert global power. Russia’s diminished influence in Syria raises questions about the future of its military bases and its ability to retain a foothold in the region.

• Iran’s Strategic Recalibration: The collapse disrupts Tehran’s regional “axis of resistance,” weakening its influence in the Arab world. This retreat signals a shift in Iran’s priorities amid mounting domestic pressures and international isolation.

• The U.S. Dilemma: While HTS remains a designated terrorist group, its role in ousting Assad—a regime hostile to the U.S.—complicates Washington’s position. Supporting reconstruction efforts without legitimizing HTS will require delicate diplomacy.

• Implications for the Global Cold War: The fall of Assad underscores the vulnerabilities of the authoritarian model championed by Russia and highlights the resilience of regional actors. For the West, this moment offers an opportunity to reassert influence through engagement and support for post-conflict stabilization.

🔍 Assessment

The collapse of Assad's regime is a defining moment that highlights the vulnerabilities of authoritarian governance reliant on external backers. This marks a significant loss for Russia, undermining its efforts to promote an alternative to Western influence. Putin's commitment to defending autocrats is increasingly strained by military and economic overreach, as seen in both Syria and Ukraine. Moscow's retreat in Syria could embolden regional powers like Turkey while challenging Russia's narrative of global leadership.

Iran faces a similarly profound setback. Assad's fall disrupts Tehran's regional network, particularly its reliance on the Tehran-Beirut axis. With Hezbollah weakened by conflict with Israel and economic pressures mounting at home, Iran's ability to project power in the Arab world is at risk. This development may compel Tehran to focus on domestic stability rather than regional ambitions.

For the United States, the rise of HTS presents a complex and challenging situation. While the group's success has dismantled a regime that opposed U.S. interests, HTS's jihadist origins and authoritarian tendencies make direct engagement a delicate matter. Washington must navigate this dichotomy with utmost care, leveraging conditional support for reconstruction while promoting broader governance reforms. The fall of Assad also offers an opportunity for the U.S. and its allies to counterbalance Russian and Iranian influence in the Middle East, fostering a more stable and inclusive regional order.

Share this intelligence brief with friends, family, and colleagues to deepen the conversation on Syria’s future and its impact on global order.

Stay safe out there