Geopolitical Update: Monday, July 22, 2024:

What’s Next for the U.S. After Joe Biden Ends Re-Election Bid

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)

President Joe Biden has announced he will not seek re-election in 2024 and has officially endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, along with key Democratic figures such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, have also thrown their support behind Harris. These endorsements solidify her position as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. While Harris enjoys significant support within the party, her campaign will need to address critical foreign policy issues, including her stance on Ukraine, Israel, and immigration, as well as her handling of domestic challenges.

Context: The Road to Biden's Decision

President Biden's decision to step aside and not seek a second term stems from a series of political challenges and missteps, most notably a disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump. This debate highlighted Biden's vulnerabilities and fueled concerns within the Democratic Party about his ability to secure a second term.

Vice President Kamala Harris

With endorsements from President Biden, Hillary Clinton, Gavin Newsom, and Josh Shapiro, Vice President Kamala Harris is now the clear favorite to succeed Biden. Harris has faced several challenges during her tenure, including criticisms of her handling of the border crisis and difficulties in establishing a strong political identity. However, these high-profile endorsements significantly boost her candidacy.

Platform and Policy Focus:

• Ukraine Support: Harris has been a staunch advocate for continued U.S. aid to Ukraine. Her commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression aligns with current administration policies and resonates with voters concerned about international stability and democratic values.

• Israel Relations: Harris has been more critical of Israel than President Biden, particularly regarding its ongoing conflict with Hamas. While advocating for a two-state solution, she has emphasized the importance of human rights and criticized Israel's military actions, which may appeal to progressive voters but could alienate some traditional allies.

• Immigration and Border Security: Harris has struggled to effectively address the U.S. Southern border crisis. Criticisms of her handling of immigration policies and border security may pose significant challenges during her campaign, especially in debates and among voters concerned about national security and immigration reform.

Potential Fractures Within the Democratic Party

Despite the strong endorsements of Harris by Biden, Clinton, Newsom, and Shapiro, the Democratic primary could still see significant competition. Different factions within the party, each with their own policy priorities and political bases, might emerge. This could lead to a fractious primary season as progressives, moderates, and establishment figures vie for influence. The competition among high-profile candidates could strain party unity and complicate efforts to present a cohesive front against the Republican nominee.

Assessment

With endorsements from President Biden and other influential Democratic figures, Vice President Kamala Harris is positioned as the leading contender for the Democratic nomination. Her visibility and experience within the current administration give her a significant advantage. However, her campaign will need to effectively address several critical issues:

• Foreign Policy: Harris’s strong advocacy for continued U.S. aid to Ukraine is likely to maintain bipartisan support for her foreign policy stance. However, her criticisms of Israel's actions in the conflict with Hamas could polarize voters and impact U.S.-Israel relations.

• Immigration: Harris’s inability to effectively manage the U.S. Southern border crisis remains a significant vulnerability. This issue will likely be a focal point in her campaign, requiring clear and decisive policy proposals to address voter concerns.

• Party Unity: The consolidation of support from key Democratic figures suggests a unified front, but internal divisions within the party could still pose challenges. Balancing the interests of progressives, moderates, and establishment figures will be crucial to maintaining party cohesion.

Regardless of the eventual nominee, the Democratic Party will face a reinvigorated Republican Party led by a candidate like Donald Trump, who is known for challenging the political establishment. This presents a significant challenge as America's status as a global superpower is increasingly in flux. The primary season will not only shape the future of the Democratic Party but also determine the U.S.'s trajectory on the international stage.

International Implications

The outcome of the Democratic primary will be closely watched by international actors. Allies and adversaries alike will be assessing the potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy that could accompany a change in leadership. A Harris presidency is likely to continue Biden's current policies regarding Ukraine, but her more critical stance on Israel might signal a shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Key allies such as Ukraine and Israel will closely monitor the candidates and their platforms to understand how potential policy shifts might impact the trajectory of their respective conflicts. The primary season will not only shape the future of the Democratic Party but also have far-reaching implications for the global geopolitical landscape.

Stay safe out there