Geopolitical Update: Monday, July 29, 2024:

Intelligence Report: Impact of 2024 Venezuelan Elections on Migration Patterns

For this special issue of the Need-To-Know newsletter, we're thrilled to welcome Rick "Rickynomics" Alonzo as our guest author. Rick is a seasoned expert in South American geopolitics and economics, bringing a wealth of experience from his time as a U.S. Army intelligence analyst. Now based in Colombia, he continues to work in private intelligence, providing invaluable insights into the region's complex political and economic landscape.

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF):

The outcome of the July 28, 2024, Venezuelan presidential elections will significantly impact migration patterns, likely causing a sharp increase in migrants regardless of the winner. If Nicolás Maduro remains in power, political violence and economic despair will drive migration. If opposition candidates win, especially María Corina Machado, initial optimism may be overshadowed by Maduro’s refusal to step down peacefully, potentially leading to violent unrest and a subsequent mass exodus. Temporary reductions in migration before the election may falsely indicate stability, but a post-election surge is expected due to political violence and instability. Enhanced vigilance and strategic planning are essential to address potential humanitarian and security challenges.

Executive Summary

The upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela, scheduled for July 28, 2024, are poised to significantly impact migration flows into the United States, especially through Colombia and the Darien Gap into Central America. Depending on the election's outcome, the number of Venezuelans leaving their country may either increase, decrease, or remain stable. This report explores the current border policies, the political dynamics affecting Venezuela's border security, and the broader implications for regional relations and global geopolitics.

Current Situation Overview

Venezuela's borders with Colombia, Brazil, and Guyana are subject to varying degrees of regulation and cooperation, influenced by historical agreements and recent political tensions. The border with Colombia has seen periodic closures due to security concerns but has also experienced re-openings aimed at facilitating trade and movement. Enhanced security measures and cooperative agreements are in place to curb illegal activities such as drug trafficking and smuggling.

On the Brazil-Venezuela border, the migration crisis has led to increased humanitarian efforts, notably Brazil’s Operation Welcome, which aids Venezuelan migrants. The border with Guyana remains contentious due to a longstanding territorial dispute over the Essequibo region, exacerbated by recent oil discoveries. Diplomatic engagements and legal proceedings continue to address this dispute.

Key Judgments

Internal political instability in Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro's administration has been a significant driver of migration. The country's ongoing economic and political turmoil has pressured border security and management. Opposition movements, led by figures like Edmundo González and the barred candidate María Corina Machado, continue to challenge Maduro's regime, adding to the volatility.

Regionally, Colombia's approach to managing Venezuelan migrants and security cooperation is critical, influenced by its own internal conflicts. Brazil's stance on migration and bilateral relations with Venezuela is shaped by its political climate. The involvement of external actors, such as the United States, China, and Russia, further complicates the geopolitical landscape, each with vested interests in Venezuela's future.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

The instability in Venezuela has had a ripple effect on regional stability, particularly in terms of migration and security. The influx of Venezuelan migrants into neighboring countries has strained resources and led to tensions, while cross-border crime and paramilitary activities necessitate regional security cooperation. On a global scale, the crisis in Venezuela has attracted increased involvement from external actors, including the United States, China, and Russia, each seeking to influence the region’s geopolitical dynamics.

Scenarios and Indicators

The outcome of the July 28 elections will likely shape migration patterns significantly. If Nicolás Maduro remains in power, the outflow of migrants is expected to increase due to diminished economic hope, exacerbating the migration crisis. Maduro's potential violent crackdown on dissent could further drive people to flee the country, creating a humanitarian issue.

In the event that Edmundo González wins, there may be a temporary reduction in migration as Venezuelans adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding the new leadership. However, the success of stabilization efforts and economic recovery will be crucial in determining long-term migration trends.

Should María Corina Machado win against all odds, her openness to increasing industry and executing dramatic political reforms could lead to a significant decrease in the outflow of migrants. Machado's popularity and her stance on corruption could instill optimism about Venezuela's future, reducing the incentive to migrate.

Conclusion

The 2024 Venezuelan elections will have profound implications for migration patterns and regional stability. A Maduro victory likely means increased migration due to continued economic despair, while a win by González or Machado could stabilize the situation, albeit with different challenges. Addressing these issues requires comprehensive policy reforms, strengthened regional cooperation, and international support to ensure stability and manage migration effectively.

The key takeaway from the elections is that we may see a sharp decline in migration in the lead-up to the elections due to increased vigilance by the Venezuelan government. However, post-election, the situation could drastically change, with potential increases in migration driven by political violence, economic conditions, and the legitimacy of the election process. Enhanced vigilance and strategic planning are essential to address the potential humanitarian and security challenges that may arise.

Analyst Comment:

The United States should be prepared for a significant increase in migrants leaving Venezuela, regardless of the election outcome. Even if María Corina Machado wins and instills hope, Nicolás Maduro’s potential refusal to step down could ignite violent political unrest, prompting a mass exodus. Conversely, a temporary reduction in migrants before the election might be misleadingly perceived by the White House as a sign of stability. This perceived stability could be falsely interpreted as improved order at the U.S.-Mexico border. However, if political violence erupts post-election, the ensuing surge in migration will likely be attributed to the unrest in Venezuela rather than a lack of deterrence policies. Thus, the temporary lull in migration might be misinterpreted, only to be starkly disproven by subsequent political violence.

As we conclude this issue of the Need-To-Know newsletter, we want to extend a heartfelt thank you to Rick "Rickynomics" Alonzo for sharing his expertise on South American geopolitics and economics. Rick's insights have provided a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics in the region, and we're grateful for his contribution.

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