Geopolitical Update: Monday, November 11, 2024:

Putin Sets 2026 Deadline for War’s End as Ukraine Faces New Pressure Amid Shifting Global Support

From now until 2025, we're launching a weekly series to keep you up-to-date on the past year's major geopolitical events and their current status as we enter the new year. Each edition will provide timely insights into the changing global landscape, examining key conflicts, alliances, and strategic shifts that affect international stability and security. This series is your go-to guide for understanding the forces behind tomorrow’s headlines.

🎯 BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The Ukraine war, nearing its third anniversary, is on the verge of entering its most unpredictable phase yet. Ukraine's military initially had a bold plan: 2025 was meant to be the year of victory, reclaiming lost territories and possibly forcing Russia into a weakened negotiating position. However, Trump's election has thrown a wrench into the works. This is putting U.S. support for Ukraine's plan in doubt. Meanwhile, Putin has ordered his generals to wrap up the conflict by 2026, signaling Russia's shift towards a defined endgame.

North Korea's recent involvement on Russia's side, with small deployments already clashing with Ukrainian forces, suggests the conflict may escalate into an international proxy war. This development has South Korea watching closely and even reconsidering its own involvement. At the same time, Ukraine's counter-moves have been surprisingly bold, including a cross-border strike into Russia's Kursk Oblast.

The biggest unknown now is Trump, specifically how his administration will handle military aid to Ukraine. Although he hasn't made any commitments yet, Trump's prior criticism of aid to Ukraine raises real questions about whether the United States will continue providing significant support. Ukraine's best chance at success in 2025 may now depend on how much support the Biden administration can fast-track before Trump officially takes office.

📌 Context

In the years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the conflict has turned into a complex war of attrition with far-reaching global consequences. Despite early setbacks, Ukraine, backed by the US and NATO, launched a strong counter-offensive. However, the rapid change in international players and unexpected developments on the battlefield have slowed down hopes for a quick resolution. North Korea's entry into the conflict, with its small troop deployments already clashing with Ukrainian forces, marks a new shift and suggests the start of a true proxy war.

Putin's recent order to his generals to end the war by 2026 reveals his long-term vision is also under time pressure, possibly to prevent further strain on Russia's resources and to restore some economic stability. Trump's return to office complicates Ukraine's path to victory, as his election could lead to a significant reduction in US military support, undermining Ukraine's 2025 strategic goal and forcing Kyiv to reassess its reliance on Western aid. Both sides are now closely watching Washington, as Ukraine needs Western help to stay in the fight, while Russia sees an opportunity if that help decreases.

🕵️ Analysis

• Russian Military Strategy: Russia is making slow and calculated advances in eastern Ukraine, focusing on solidifying control over Donetsk and Bakhmut. The goal is not just to gain territory but to achieve strategic depth, forcing Ukraine to divide its attention and resources across multiple fronts.

• Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion: Ukraine's move into Russian territory in Kursk Oblast is both bold and strategic. By attacking Russia on its own soil, Ukraine aimed to force a diversion of Russian resources from the eastern front. However, Putin chose to delay any redeployment from eastern Ukraine, instead relying on North Korean forces to counter Ukrainian troops in Kursk. This move allowed Russia to maintain pressure on Ukraine’s front-line defenses in the east while addressing the new threat with allied support.

• Trump’s Potential Policy Shift: Trump’s past skepticism about foreign aid to Ukraine raises doubts about continued U.S. support. Without a consistent U.S. funding pipeline, Ukraine’s ability to follow through on its 2025 plans will be weakened. This will likely force a shift toward a defensive stance or accelerated peace negotiations.

• Putin’s 2026 Deadline: Putin’s call to end the war by 2026 implies a clear Russian strategy – likely seeking a negotiated settlement if a decisive victory is unattainable. This deadline pressures Russia to secure and strengthen its territorial gains while exploring diplomatic options to solidify these advances. For Ukraine, this adds extreme urgency to stay resilient and hold its ground as global donor fatigue increases and shifting international politics, particularly in the U.S., create uncertainty about ongoing support.

🔍 Assessment

With Trump about to take office, Ukraine's outlook is far more uncertain than it was just a month ago. If Trump is unwilling to commit resources to Ukraine, it could lead to a decrease in both funding and strategic guidance - a critical gap, given Ukraine's heavy reliance on Western support for its 2025 victory plan. As the Biden administration rushes to send as much aid as possible before the transition, Ukraine faces the real possibility of shifting to a more defensive strategy if Trump reduces support.

Meanwhile, Putin's goal to end the war by 2026 raises concerns that Russia will intensify its efforts in 2025, seeking support from wherever it can get it, such as military aid from North Korea or regional pressure on South Korea. This directive from Putin signals a new level of urgency, setting the stage for a year of fierce battles and escalating stakes. As international attention and support dwindle, both sides face an uphill struggle to keep this conflict a priority on the world stage.

Stay safe out there