Geopolitical Update: Monday, November 18, 2024:

Trump's Middle East Picks: A New Era of U.S. Foreign Policy?

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🎯 BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Israel is intensifying its plans for asserting control over strategic areas of the West Bank. The current leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich aims to formalize territorial claims by 2025. This strategy hinges on anticipated U.S. support, especially once Donald Trump, known for his pro-Israel stance, returns to office.

The incoming Trump administration will signify a marked shift in U.S.-Israel relations. This strong American backing would enable Israel’s leadership to pursue its vision more assertively. Historically, however, Washington has maintained a cautious approach toward Israeli settlements. Under President Biden, U.S. policy favored a two-state framework, clashing with Netanyahu’s agenda and straining diplomatic ties.

Trump’s proposed appointments show a clear pivot: with Mike Huckabee as Ambassador to Israel and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, both staunch advocates for Israel’s sovereignty claims, the U.S. would signal robust support for Israel’s actions in the West Bank. Such appointments will deepen U.S. involvement in the region, potentially triggering significant reactions from Arab states and shifting dynamics across the Middle East.

📌 Context

The longstanding tension between Israel and the United States over settlements and Palestinian statehood traces back decades. For years, U.S. policy has generally favored a two-state solution along pre-1967 lines, but Trump disrupted that approach in 2019 by recognizing Israeli settlements in the West Bank. This bold move marked a sharp reversal in U.S. Middle East policy, drawing significant criticism from the international community yet aligning closely with Israel’s vision for the region.

With Netanyahu back in office, his administration is pushing even further, now seeking to formalize Israeli control over parts of the West Bank that they see as rightfully theirs. Figures like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have been vocal in their ambition to extend Israeli law over these territories, positioning this move as a logical next step in consolidating Israel's presence. The Biden administration, committed to Palestinian statehood and wary of escalating tensions, maintained its opposition to these measures, creating a stark ideological divide that characterized diplomatic relations during his term.

Trump’s re-election promises to bring a dramatic shift in the U.S.-Israel relationship, potentially removing the final hurdles to Israel’s plans for the West Bank. During his first term, Trump demonstrated his willingness to back Israel’s claims, as seen when he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocated the U.S. Embassy there. With Trump back in power, Israel’s leadership may finally have the green light to act on long-held ambitions, setting the stage for a significant realignment in the region that favors Israeli sovereignty over diplomatic compromise.

Central to this shift is Mike Huckabee, Trump’s pick for U.S. Ambassador to Israel, whose deep ties to Israel’s religious right and belief in Israel’s biblical right to the land bring another layer of complexity to U.S. foreign policy. Huckabee’s strong support for Israeli sovereignty aligns closely with the administration’s approach and is likely to embolden Israeli leadership. However, his stance could create additional friction with neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt, which have formal peace agreements with Israel but might respond sharply if Israel expands its control over disputed areas. These dynamics signal a period of intensified regional tension as the U.S. moves into a new chapter of strategic partnership with Israel.

🕵️ Analysis

• Israel’s Sovereignty Plan: Israel is gearing up to assert full control over parts of the West Bank. With the right support from the U.S., this move could happen within the next year or two.

• Impact of Trump’s Team: Huckabee’s and Rubio’s support for Israel’s claims means that if Trump is back in office, we’ll likely see the U.S. backing Israeli expansion plans in the West Bank, even if it leads to a backlash.

• Regional Reactions: This could cause serious tension with Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab nations, who are likely to voice opposition and could even take steps to counter Israel diplomatically or economically.

• International Legal Pushback: The Biden administration and other international bodies may try to push back, citing international law to stop or delay Israel’s sovereignty move. Sanctions and other forms of pressure could be on the table.

• Palestinian Authority’s Countermoves: The Palestinian Authority will likely amp up its lobbying efforts at the U.N., looking to rally support from other countries against Israel’s actions. But with the U.S. potentially withdrawing support, they’ll be in a tough spot.

🔍 Assessment

The relationship between the U.S. and Israel will take a major turn with Trump’s return to office. The U.S. will take a much friendlier stance toward Israeli expansion into the West Bank. This approach will probably bring Netanyahu’s government closer to achieving its goal of full sovereignty over the area, but it could spark new waves of conflict in the region. Pro-Israel support within the U.S., especially from Trump’s evangelical base, will help solidify these plans, and Israel will see this as its best chance in years to push for a “one-state” reality.

At the same time, this shift may strain Israel’s budding relations with some Arab states. Countries like the UAE and Bahrain, which joined the Abraham Accords, may think twice about strengthening ties if Israel proceeds with its territorial moves. While some Arab nations might quietly look the other way to keep business going, others could be forced to criticize or limit relations with Israel publicly.

In short, if Israel decides to assert its control over parts of the West Bank, expect intensified international debate and legal challenges. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, already one of the world’s longest and most complex, could become even harder to resolve.

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