Intelligence Fun Fact:

The world's first intelligence agency is often credited to the ancient kingdom of Egypt, where Pharaohs relied on a network of spies to gather intelligence on neighboring kingdoms and potential threats. The ancient Greek city-state of Athens is also known to have had a well-organized intelligence network, with a chief spy (called "strategos") overseeing a team of agents who would gather information on enemy movements and plans.

However, the most famous example of an ancient intelligence agency is the "Mughal Secret Service" established by Emperor Akbar in the 16th century. Akbar created a network of spies who would gather information from all corners of his empire and report back to him on potential threats, internal unrest, and political intrigues. The agency was called the "Ihtisab" or "Diwan-i-Ihtisab," and its agents were known as "Ihtisabgar." They were selected for their skills in espionage and could be of any religion or background. The Ihtisab was a highly effective intelligence agency that played a significant role in the stability of the Mughal Empire.

Weekend Insights

The current state of geopolitical affairs is illustrated by increasing competition and strategic rivalry between the US, Russia, and China. It is compounded by the ongoing security challenges in the Middle East and Africa. In the first quarter of 2023, ISIS activity increased in Syria, posing a continued risk to Iraq's stability, while overstretched security forces struggled to contain al Qaeda and IS-affiliated militants in Mali and Somalia. At the same time, Russia and China have continued to assert themselves on the global stage, with China seeking to expand its economic and military influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, while Russia has pursued aggressive actions such as the recent war in Ukraine. These dynamics will likely continue to shape global politics in the coming years.

• According to recent information, Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition. He also continued to urge the Kremlin to send more troops to the defensive in eastern Ukraine. Additionally, Ukrainian forces likely attacked an oil storage facility in Sevastopol with a wave of UAVs on April 29. The attack destroyed ten oil tanks with a total capacity of 40,000 tons of fuel, and there were no casualties. The effectiveness of using low-cost drones for swarm attacks and the need for Russian forces to saturate the Crimean airspace with more air defense systems appear to be a new tactic by Ukraine.

• China has passed a revision to its anti-espionage law, prohibiting collaboration with spy organizations and their agents and conducting cyber-attacks against state entities. The new law is seen as a justification for gathering data from foreign companies and their employees while doing business in China. Furthermore, the Chinese ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, dismissed the sovereignty of former Soviet republics, prompting a call from Chinese President Xi Jinping to Ukrainian President Zelensky to mitigate the European fallout. This week the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Shandong aircraft carrier strike group conducted exercises in the Philippine Sea, potentially to demonstrate the ability to isolate the Philippines. This naval activity, along with high-level meetings with Philippine officials, aims to limit the US military's access to the Philippines and to contain American operational capabilities in the region.

• ISIS activity has increased in Syria during the first quarter of 2023. This comes despite statements to the contrary made by Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve Commander Major General Matthew MacFarlane. Although ISIS attacks decreased in northeastern Syria, this is likely due to the group's prioritization of central Syria. Attacks quadrupled in central Syria between January and February 2023. Furthermore, the group's continued ability to maintain support zones in Syria poses a significant risk to Iraq's hard-won stability, especially given Iraq's inability to successfully destroy these zones in rural areas. It will be crucial to monitor ISIS activity closely in both Iraq and Syria to prevent any potential threats to stability and security in the region.

Headlines

Russian Air Strikes Kill 25 in Cities Across Ukraine, Including Kyiv

The wave of Russian air strikes on cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, resulted in at least 25 deaths. One of the deadliest attacks was in Uman, where 23 people, including four children, died in an attack that hit a block of flats. The strikes in Uman may have targeted a potential F-16 training site. The Russian defense ministry claimed its military had targeted Ukrainian army reserve units with long-range strikes using high-precision weapons. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the attacks showed the need for further international action against Russia, calling for enhanced global sanctions. Ukrainian forces say they are ready to launch a military offensive with new equipment, including tanks, supplied by Western allies.

Analyst Comment:

• The situation in Ukraine is escalating, and the Russian air strikes are a clear indication of Moscow's willingness to escalate the conflict further. The targeting of civilian areas is particularly concerning. It is clear that the attacks have caused significant damage and loss of life. The Ukrainian military is poised to launch a counter-offensive, but it remains to be seen how this will play out.

• The use of high-precision weapons by the Russian military indicates a significant improvement in their capabilities. It is also concerning that the Ukrainian air defense system was only able to intercept a portion of the missiles and drones launched by Russia. This suggests that Ukraine may be vulnerable to future attacks by Russia.

• The calls for enhanced global sanctions against Russia by President Zelensky are likely to be met with support from the international community. However, it remains to be seen whether these sanctions will be effective in changing Russia's behavior. It is clear that Russia is determined to maintain its influence in Ukraine, and the conflict is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Beijing Vows Retaliation Over U.S. Charges Against Chinese Police Officers

Beijing has threatened to take countermeasures if the U.S. continues to press charges against Chinese police officers and officials accused of harassing and intimidating dissidents in America. The U.S. Department of Justice announced earlier this month that a total of 44 people had been charged in connection with what it called a "transnational repression scheme." Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, accused the U.S. of "weaponizing and politicizing the law" and engaging in political manipulation.

Analyst Comment:

• The Chinese government's strong response to the U.S. Department of Justice's accusations against China highlights the increasingly tense relationship between the two countries. The U.S.-China relationship has been strained in recent years over issues such as trade, intellectual property, and human rights.

• The charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice against China are part of a broader trend of the U.S. government taking a more aggressive stance towards China. The U.S. has been increasingly vocal about China's human rights abuses and its aggressive foreign policy, which has led to tensions between the two countries.

• Beijing's threat to take countermeasures if the U.S. continues to press charges against Chinese police officers and officials is not surprising. The Chinese government has a long history of retaliating against countries that it perceives as challenging its authority or sovereignty. It remains to be seen what specific measures Beijing will take, but it is clear that the U.S.-China relationship is becoming increasingly fraught.

U.S. Confiscates Iranian Oil at Sea, Prompting Retaliation and Further Escalation in Tensions

Recently, The U.S. confiscated Iranian oil on a tanker at sea in a sanctions enforcement operation. According to a maritime security firm, Iran seized a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in retaliation. The cargo seizure is the latest escalation between Washington and Tehran after years of sanctions pressure by the U.S. over Iran's nuclear program.

Analyst Comment:

• The recent events are a clear indication of the continued escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. has been imposing sanctions on Iran for years. The recent seizure of Iranian oil is a clear demonstration of its resolve to continue this policy. Iran's retaliatory actions are also expected to exacerbate tensions. Both countries remain locked in a conflict that shows no signs of ending anytime soon.

• The conflict between the US and Iran has wider geopolitical implications, particularly for the Middle East. The region is already volatile, and the continued tensions between the two countries are likely to make matters worse. Other countries in the region may also be drawn into the conflict, which could lead to a wider conflict and greater instability in the region.

• The recent events also highlight the ongoing struggle over control of oil resources in the Middle East. The U.S. and Iran are both major players in the global oil market. Their actions are likely to have an impact on oil prices. Any disruption to the flow of oil from the region could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

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