Intelligence Snippet of the Week:

Open Source Intelligence Tools

Shodan

Shodan is an open source intelligence tool that allows users to find internet-connected devices. These devices include webcams, routers, servers, and more. Unlike traditional search engines, Shodan indexes devices that are connected to the internet, not just web pages. This makes it an extremely powerful tool for discovering new and vulnerable targets for network security research.

Shodan’s powerful query engine allows users to search for specific types of devices, operating systems, software, and vulnerabilities. The results of a Shodan search are displayed on a map. The map has the ability to show the location of the devices that match the search criteria. This can be extremely useful for finding devices that are connected to the internet. For example, it can find webcams that are connected directly to the internet without any security measures in place.

In addition to its search capabilities, Shodan provides a wealth of information about each device it finds. This information can include details about the operating system and software installed on the device, the services running on the device, and any vulnerabilities that have been identified in the software. This information can be extremely valuable for security researchers. The information provides insights into the security of devices connected to the internet and helps identify areas that need to be secured. It is important to note that Shodan can also be used maliciously, so Open Source practitioners must be responsible when using the tool and only access information that they have permission to access.

Weekend Insights

• Russia began the initial stages of its new offensive to seize the Eastern portion of Ukraine. It is assessed that, after this new offensive, Russia will reconsolidate forces for a significant push toward Kyiv. The offensive began with several missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Ukraine. At least one of those missiles flew over Moldovan airspace. This action led to the summoning of the Russian Ambassador to Moldova. At the same time the Ambassador was summoned, the Prime Minister of Moldova resigned, and the government collapsed.

• The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) tracked three unidentified aerial objects. One of the objects was shot down over Alaska, while a U.S. F-22 shot down a second object under the direction of Canadian President Justin Trudeau. The third object is now considered a radar anomaly and could not be found in flight. Due to the likelihood it was just a radar anomaly, no entities were engaged by U.S. fighter jets.

• The Geostrategic competition for overseas basing has become a major Geopolitical situation. The United States, China, and Russia are active across multiple continents and continue attempts to gain a strategic advantage by disparaging adversarial countries. The desire is two-fold: 1) Gain an economic advantage by tapping into the rich resources of developing nations in Africa, South America, and the Middle East. 2) Gain a strategic advantage by housing troops in locations that can be used to counter any perceived aggressive acts by adversarial countries.

Headlines

A wakeup call from China

The head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency fears that China is expanding its spy activities against Berlin, he said in a newspaper interview published on Saturday, adding that Beijing was focusing increasingly on political espionage.

Analyst Comments:

• The recent incursion of a Chinese spy balloon over the coast of South Carolina in the United States has sparked a geopolitical crisis and has led to a reassessment of the United States and Germany's relationships with China. The FBI, along with other government agencies and the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, is currently investigating the incident. However, much of the evidence remains underwater and the FBI is still working to determine the source of the balloon's components and its capabilities. Assistant directors of the Operational Technology Division and the Laboratory Division have stated that no offensive or energetic material has been detected. However, much of the evidence has yet to be recovered. So far, the recovered evidence has been limited to the balloon and some wiring and electronics, with no evidence of the payload.

• The Chinese spy balloon incident has led the United States to blacklist six Chinese entities linked to Beijing’s aerospace programs as retaliation. This move will likely escalate the already tense diplomatic relations between the United States and China, as the United States believes the balloon was equipped to detect and collect intelligence signals. At the same time, Beijing insists it was just a weather craft that had gone off course. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s capabilities are outpacing the modernization of the United States Navy and Air Force, leading the United States to prepare for sustained combat in the Indo-Pacific with a focus on air-, land- and sea-launched missiles, including stealthy cruise missiles and advanced hypersonic missiles.

• Meanwhile, in Germany, the head of the domestic intelligence agency fears that China is expanding its spy activities against Berlin and increasingly focusing on political espionage. This has led the German government to reassess its economic relations with authoritarian countries, particularly after the Ukraine war highlighted the vulnerabilities of Germany's long-standing energy dependence on Russia. These events demonstrate a growing concern about China's assertiveness and capabilities in both the United States and Germany. This is driving the need to reevaluate their relationships with China and a possible shift in the international system.

Moldovan government quits amid economic turmoil, Russia tensions

Moldova's pro-Western government resigned this weekend after a turbulent 18 months in power marked by economic turmoil and the spillover effects of Russia's war in neighboring Ukraine.

Analyst Comments:

• Recently, there has been increasing tension between Russia and ex-Soviet states in the region, most notably Moldova. Over the weekend, Moldova's Foreign Ministry accused Russia of hostile actions and remarks following an attack on Ukraine, which crossed Moldova's airspace. The attack included 71 missiles and led to blackouts in six regions of Ukraine with 150,000 homes without electricity and seven people injured. Kyiv has called for the West to donate fighter jets to defend against Russia's aggression and criticized political hesitation over supplying arms.

• The resignation of Moldova's Prime Minister and the collapse of its government have potential geopolitical implications as it might create a power vacuum in the country. The political crisis could lead to instability and uncertainty, affecting the country's relations with neighboring countries and international organizations. The change in leadership might also impact the country's economic and military dealings, potentially influencing the balance of power in the region. This could lead to Russia installing a pro-Putin regime that will further destabilize the region. The outcome of the crisis and the actions of the new government could also impact the ongoing conflicts and tensions in the region, particularly in relation to the situation between Russia and Ukraine.

Geostrategic Competition and U.S., Chinese, and Russian Overseas Basing

U.S., Chinese, and Russian overseas military bases have become an important element of geostrategic competition. In particular, the efforts of great powers to establish overseas bases reveal the geographic parameters of their intent to project power and influence. The varied concentrations of military presence and posture in different regions, and the wide functional differences between platforms used for power projection – from traditional bases to commercial ports – make a regional and comparative analysis of overseas basing necessary.

Analyst Comments:

• The United States holds the largest collection of foreign military outposts, comprising of approximately 800 bases in more than 70 countries. The United States capitalizes on its overseas bases to demonstrate authority and sway, as well as aiding its international military actions and combating threats from abroad.

• Conversely, China holds little proficiency in running military outposts overseas. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has intensified its military influence lately by establishing military facilities in nations like Pakistan and Djibouti. Most analysts believe China's transnational armed forces role is part of a wider aim to spread its power far and wide.

• In the case of Russia, it has a smaller network of overseas military bases compared to the United States but is still using its overseas presence to advance its strategic interests. Russia's overseas military bases are concentrated in countries that are strategically important to Russia, such as Syria and Ukraine.

• The United States, China, and Russia have made the choice to form overseas military bases as a key part of their geostrategic plan. These efforts to create international bases are a manifestation of the scope of their aim to project power and influence across the globe. The presence and posture of these military forces vary widely in different regions. It will be important to identify and analyze each country’s intended goals as they continue to compete for power across the globe.

Country Profile

Kenya

Kenya's government is a presidential representative democratic republic, where the President is both head of state and head of government. The country has a bicameral legislature composed of the Senate and the National Assembly, with the latter being responsible for passing laws. Kenya operates a multi-party system and has held multiple general elections since its transition to multiparty democracy in 1991. The country's political climate has been marked by periods of stability as well as political and electoral violence.

Kenya has a mixed economy with a significant agricultural sector and a growing service sector. The country is East Africa's largest economy and has a well-developed financial sector. Kenya has made significant strides in expanding its infrastructure, with several major construction projects underway. However, Kenya still faces economic challenges such as high levels of poverty, income inequality, and unemployment, as well as corruption and weak institutions.

Kenya has a relatively large military, with the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) consisting of the Kenya Army, Kenya Navy, and Kenya Air Force. The military is responsible for maintaining internal and external security. This responsibility includes responding to threats such as terrorism and piracy. The KDF is also responsible for providing humanitarian aid and disaster relief. The KDF has played a key role in international peacekeeping operations, including in Somalia and South Sudan. Despite these efforts, Kenya's military has faced criticism for human rights abuses, particularly in its operations in Somalia.

Advisory levels for Kenya

Kenya is at a level 2 risk for travelers according to the U.S. State Department. Exercise increased caution in Kenya due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, and kidnapping.  Some areas have increased risk.

A ‘Do not travel’ advisory is in place for the Kenya-Somalia border counties and some coastal areas, due to terrorism and kidnapping. Areas of Turkana County, are of concern due to crime.

Violent crimes, such as armed carjacking, mugging, home invasion, and kidnapping, can occur at any time.  Local police lack the capability to respond to serious criminal incidents and terrorist attacks.  Emergency medical and fire services are also limited. 

Terrorist attacks have taken place unexpectedly and have targeted government buildings, tourist spots, transportation hubs, accommodations, shopping centers, and religious establishments in Kenya. These acts of terrorism have involved armed assaults, suicide bombings, explosive/grenade attacks, and abductions.

Media Bias Alert

Here are the findings from that exercise:

• Allsides argues: It’s no question that Trump has been “associated with divisive and controversial actions or statements.” But Biden has been, too. In fact, you could argue that he is right now, amid the probe of why he had classified documents at private offices and residences.

• Allsides also states: Of course, a sample of two names only gives us a tiny understanding of ChatGPT’s approach to polarizing individuals and topics. To gain further insight, we tested a few others. After doing so, it's still hard to tell where the tech draws the line on someone being too "divisive or controversial."

• Further analysis of the platform's possible biases is warranted, and to the credit of Allsides, the OpenAi Chat Bot is actually quite heterogeneous when deciding to create poems of praise for people, places, and theories. For Example, Ron DeSantis, Bernie Sanders, Ben Shapiro, Ilhan Omar, Prince Joffrey from Game of Thrones, Communism, Capitalism, Christian Nationalism, Jordan Peterson, and J.K. Rowling all receive poems of admiration.

• The list of individuals and topics that ChatGPT will not write a poem about are as follows: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Benjamin Netanyahu, Kim Jong-un, Casey Anthony, Louis C.K., Mao Zedong, Jeffrey Dahmer, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Antifa, and Fascism.

Interesting Articles from the Weekend

Stay safe out there