Intelligence Fun Fact:

SCIFs (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities) are designed to prevent electronic eavesdropping by blocking radio frequencies, but they can also inadvertently block cellphone signals. As a result, many SCIFs have a "red phone" that allows occupants to make secure calls without interference, but personal cellphones may not work inside the facility.

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Intelligence Leak Unveiled: Why The Right Questions Matter More Than the Current Conversations

On April 10th, 2023, news broke out about a national guard soldier leaking classified information to the media. The information leaked was related to the government's internal policies and operations. While the true motivation of the soldier has not been disclosed, questions have been raised about the circumstances of the leak and its implications. 

The Wrong Questions

In the aftermath of the intelligence leak, some individuals and media outlets have been asking the wrong questions. Questions such as "How did a 21-year-old have access to the documents?" do not identify the problem with the leak. While it is important to investigate how the soldier accessed the classified information, it is not the root cause of the leak. Instead, the following questions should be asked:

1. Is it plausible the leaker was just trying to impress young impressionable kids within his friend group?

2. Who else could be involved in the leak?

3. Was he used as an asset to release the information for some other nefarious reasons?

4. Why did the media think this was an unlawful leak as opposed to Edward Snowden, who was celebrated as a whistleblower?

While we wait for more information to be released on the possible motivations of the leaker, it is key to keep those questions in mind.

Details

One of the leaked documents dated late February 2023 revealed that Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut were nearly encircled by Russian forces. A senior Ukrainian official noted that morale was low among Ukrainian soldiers, and the Ukrainian position was described as "catastrophic." Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine's director of military intelligence, offered to deploy elite units to safeguard the single supply line and prevent encirclement. The deployment of reinforcements, including elite units, ultimately prevented the encirclement, but at a strategic cost, depleting seasoned forces that may have been in reserve for the spring counter-offensive.

The documents also covered information on U.S.-provided military resources Ukraine had access to and purported Pentagon estimates on Russian and Ukrainian casualties. Several documents offered "low confidence" estimates for the number of casualties. The U.S. estimated 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, compared to 124,500 to 131,000 Ukrainian casualties. One document also stated that the number of soldiers killed in action in the Armed Forces of Ukraine was between 15,500 and 17,500; while casualties of the Russian Armed Forces were between 35,500 and 43,000. On April 7, the 2023 Pentagon document leaks revealed a far greater toll for the Ukrainian forces than initially estimated. The leaked text indicated that 16,000 to 17,500 Russian military personnel were killed compared to an alleged 71,500 Ukrainian soldiers.

The documents also revealed that Russia was taking steps to combat NATO-provided tanks, such as the M1 Abrams. Plans by the Russian General Staff to counter NATO-provided tanks were detailed. One such plan involved paying Russian soldiers who destroy NATO tanks. The documents also showed U.S. awareness of Russian military planning--such as plans to destroy a hangar containing drones near Odesa.

According to one document, a Russian fighter jet nearly shot down a British surveillance plane off the coast of Crimea. The incident, referred to as a "near-shootdown" of a Rivet Joint from the United Kingdom, occurred in September 2022. The document was among others detailing encounters that Russian fighter jets had with foreign aircraft, including the 2023 Black Sea drone incident. The documents suggest that Ukraine's air defense against aircraft will be depleted by May.

The documents also included the list of countries that have small contingents of military special forces operating inside Ukraine. The United Kingdom sent the largest number of soldiers at 50, followed by Latvia (17), France (15), the United States (14), and the Netherlands (1). The United States special forces were detailed to the U.S. embassy in Kyiv to provide security for VIPs and to assist with oversight of U.S. equipment and supplies being sent to Ukraine.

In April 2023, the Pentagon document leaks also revealed that U.N. General Secretary Antonio Guterres was spied on by U.S. intelligence. Previously, the U.S. had accused Guterres of being overly soft on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The leaks also revealed other secret spying activities, including on allies, such as Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey, Ivory Coast, and Colombia.

Implications

The leaked documents, which reportedly contained information about a government surveillance program, have raised concerns about privacy and civil liberties. The fact that this information was leaked by a member of the military has also raised questions about the role of the military in domestic surveillance and the potential for abuse of power.

The media response to the leak has been mixed, with some outlets treating the soldier as a whistleblower and others labeling him a criminal. This raises questions about the criteria used to determine whether a leak is justified or not, and whether the media is being consistent in its treatment of leaks.

One of the key implications of the leak is the potential damage it could do to national security. If the information contained in the leaked documents is accurate, it could compromise ongoing investigations and put the lives of government agents at risk. It could also damage relationships with foreign governments, who may be hesitant to share intelligence with the U.S. if they fear it will be leaked.

Another implication is the erosion of public trust in government institutions. The leak could fuel existing perceptions that the government is engaged in intrusive surveillance and disregard for individual privacy. This could lead to decreased support for law enforcement and intelligence agencies, making it more difficult for them to carry out national security work effectively.

It is also worth considering who else may be involved in the leak. The fact that the soldier was able to access sensitive documents suggests that there may be vulnerabilities in the military's security protocols. It is possible that other individuals with access to sensitive information could also leak it, potentially causing even greater harm.

Another possibility is that the soldier was used as an asset to release the information for some other nefarious reason. It is possible that he was manipulated by a foreign government or another group to leak the information, and that he was not acting solely on his own.

Overall, the recent intelligence leak raises important questions about the balance between privacy and national security, the role of the military in domestic surveillance, and the criteria used to determine when a leak is justified or not. It also highlights the need for improved security protocols to prevent unauthorized access to sensitive information and for clear guidelines on how to handle leaks in a consistent and ethical manner. Ultimately, the implications of the leak and the media response will depend on how the situation is handled moving forward.

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