Intelligence Snippet of the Week:

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Maltego

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Weekend Insights

• The buzz over the weekend was centered around a possible Chinese Surveillance balloon flying across the United States of America. On February 2nd, the Pentagon commented on the news a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon was spotted over Montana, a sparsely populated area within the United States. Senior Defense officials claimed with "very high confidence” that the balloon originated from China and that it did not pose a military or physical threat to people on the ground. The balloon crossed over multiple sensitive U.S. sites, including missile silos in Montana, before continuing towards the East Coast.

• On Saturday, the United States planned and executed a shoot down of the surveillance balloon that was being used to survey strategic sites in the continental United States. The action was taken in coordination with the Canadian government after officials first detected the balloon entering U.S. airspace near the Aleutian Islands on January 28.

• Upon authorization, an F-22 Raptor fighter from Langley Air Force Base in Virginia fired an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile which caused it to deflate and drift over territorial waters off the coast of South Carolina, thus avoiding any potential risk of debris affecting civilians on ground.

Headlines

Behind the Scenes Analysis of the US-China Standoff Over the Surveillance Balloon Incident:

On February 2nd, a press briefing was held by the Pentagon to address a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon spotted over the northwest United States. A senior defense official commented that the government had “very high confidence” that the balloon is of People's Republic of China (PRC) origin and that it did not pose a military or physical threat to people on the ground. The balloon reportedly crossed over multiple sensitive U.S. sites, including missile silos in Montana.

China is well-versed in the testing and use of high-altitude, solar-powered balloons. While this is not the first incident of its kind, the specific characteristics of this balloon warrant special interest.

President Joe Biden authorized a mission to shoot down the Chinese surveillance balloon that had traversed Alaska, Canada, and re-entered U.S. airspace over Idaho. The action was taken in coordination with the Canadian government, and an F-22 Raptor fighter from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base, Virginia. The aircraft fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder missile at the balloon before it fell six miles off the coast in about 47 feet of water. No people were hurt in the process.

The PRC had been using this balloon to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States, but U.S. officials took steps to protect against its collection of sensitive information and mitigate its intelligence value to China. Additionally, military commanders determined that there was undue risk of debris causing harm to civilians while the balloon was over land so they delayed their action until it was over water off South Carolina instead.

Analyst Comment:

• The PRC publicly stated that this was a runaway weather balloon, but U.S. officials have asserted that this was indeed a surveillance balloon seeking to monitor sensitive military sites in North America. Officials determined early Saturday morning that intelligence value warranted its shoot down and recovery. To facilitate this process and protect against any more instances of collection of sensitive information, U.S. Navy and Coast Guard vessels were deployed in order to establish a security perimeter around the area where it fell into waters near South Carolina to search for debris.

• China is experienced in the use and testing of solar-powered balloons, but this instance warrants further attention due to its particular characteristics and flight path mapping. Officials have been in contact with the PRC and have communicated to them “the seriousness with which we take this issue” and warned that appropriate action may be taken if the risk profile changes.

• The purported creator of the balloon is Zhuzhou Rubber Research & Design Institute Co., Ltd. The Zhuzhou Rubber Research & Design Institute Co. of Chemchina is a specialized research institute and the largest manufacturer of meteorological balloons in China. 

• There are now public reports that this is not an isolated incident, as similar balloons have been sighted over North America before. On Saturday, a defense official said Chinese spy balloons briefly traveled over the United States at least three times during the Trump administration. Trump and his team denied that it had occurred and accused the Biden administration of spreading false information. 

• Pentagon officials have stated they were able to jam signals from the balloon making its purported intelligence gathering operation obsolete. Also of note, officials claim they were able to acquire useful intelligence while tracking the balloon over United States airspace.

• Balloons are actually an impractical platform for spying as they are large, hard to hide and move slowly, since they go where the wind takes them. Reports from the Pentagon suggest this particular balloon had been steered by Artificial Intelligence. On top of this, the payload attached would need some form of transmission mechanism in order for data to be sent back home without physically returning the balloon itself. The U.S. had used C-130 aircraft in the 1960s, but this proved to be dangerous and impractical. Alternatively, parachuting or using radio transmissions could potentially work, but there has been no evidence so far of this being utilized effectively. This means any data collected is not reliably received securely by the operating country.

• The purpose and implications are clear, China is set on obtaining data through these balloons to increase their knowledge base. The technology needs more research when compared to other countries' similar research, but it is clear that relevant information can be gained through aerial surveys without relying on costly structures such as satellites or rockets. Potential areas of usage can include military operations, border security efforts, and tracking movement within certain areas.

• China has long been known for its espionage activities against the United States and other Western countries. China’s spying operations have grown in sophistication, scope, and intensity over time. It surpasses the Soviet espionage campaigns during the Cold War era. For decades, China has actively engaged in industrial espionage, political hacking of U.S. government facilities, and cyber-attacks against U.S. companies. Until 2015, when U.S. authorities responded harshly to Chinese hacking of the Office of Personnel Management, U.S. intelligence agencies had basically accepted that this kind of behavior was just the cost of doing business with a big market like China.

• There have been some recent events that have caused alarm among American officials including reports that Chinese operatives have been sending balloons equipped with sensors over the U.S. mainland. While these episodes are rather alarming, as they suggest more advanced operations by foreign agents on mainland American soil, it’s important to remember that there is no evidence that anything illegal or harmful is being done by these balloons.

• The risks posed by these activities pale in comparison to real threats posed by Chinese technical espionage which can lead to much more serious repercussions if not addressed appropriately. This is why it is essential for the United States to be proactive and invest more resources into cybersecurity measures and direct negotiations with China about scaling back their investigation activities. Additionally, stronger laws should be put into place. One of those actions should be to renew The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA); which can help protect American citizens from further harm due to foreign interference on U.S. soil.

Country Profile

Iran

The government of Iran is an Islamic Republic. Its political system based on the concept of Velayat-e Faqih, meaning the guardianship of the Islamic jurist. The country has an elected President and Parliament, but ultimate power rests with the Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader is a religious figure appointed by the Assembly of Experts.

Iran has a mixed economy with significant state control and intervention - particularly in the oil and natural gas sectors. Despite its large oil reserves, the country has struggled with economic sanctions and unemployment in recent years. However, the government has implemented reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and boosting the private sector. Additionally, the country has a highly educated population and a well-developed infrastructure, which could provide opportunities for growth in industries such as technology and tourism.

The military of Iran is considered one of the most powerful in the region, with a large and well-equipped army, navy, and air force. Iran has been involved in several regional conflicts, including the Iran-Iraq War and the ongoing Syrian Civil War. The country also supports various non-state actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has given it significant influence in the region. Additionally, Iran has been developing its ballistic missile program. This has been a source of tension with the international community.

Travel Advisory Levels for Iran

The United States State Department has placed a 'Do Not Travel' advisory for Iran due to the risk of kidnapping and the arbitrary arrest and detention of U.S. citizens. U.S. citizens visiting or residing in Iran have been kidnapped, arrested, and detained on false charges. The State Department has determined that at least one U.S. national remains wrongfully detained by the Iranian government. 

Currently, Iran is dealing with massive civil unrest due to the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while she was in police custody. Pro-Government forces continue to violently shut down protests leading to hundreds of deaths and the arrests of thousands of protesters. Some protesters have been given the death penalty for their involvement in the unrest.

Media Bias Alert

United States media outlets remained fairly unbiased during the Chinese Surveillance balloon incident. Outlets ranging from left to right largely echoed the same account of the events. However, conservative commentators have slammed the delayed reaction time before shooting down the balloon. Some more liberal outlets applauded U.S. President Biden on his decision.

Analysis of Bias:

• The Associated Press, which leans left, gave a balanced review of Republican criticism while also lauding President Biden for his quick decision to demand the balloon be taken down. They also approved of President Biden heeding the advice of military leaders.

Analysis of Bias:

• The Washington Examiner, which leans right, reported only on the statements made by Republican leaders condemning the actions of China and expressing anger that the balloon had not been shot down as soon as it was identified.

Interesting Articles from the Weekend

Stay safe out there