In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

Official End to START and Russia's Plot to Destabilize Moldova: Investigating Putin's Latest Moves:

Here are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week that Was:

· Russia-Ukraine

· Putin Signs Bill to End START Treaty

· Moldova Protests

· Activists Destroy Military Aircraft in Belarus

· Serbia and Kosovo Move to Normalize Relations

· China and Belarus Solidify Relations

· U.S. and South Korea Plan More Exercises

· Covid Lab Leak Theory

Key Takeaways:

Russia Accuses Ukrainian Saboteurs of Attack Inside Russia

Russia accused Ukrainian saboteurs of crossing into western Russia and firing on villagers, resulting in the death of two civilians. Ukraine denied the claim and warned that Moscow could use the allegations to justify stepping up its own attacks in the ongoing war. If confirmed, this would be another indication, following drone attacks earlier this week, that Kyiv may be intensifying pressure against Moscow. Ukraine is attempting to do this by exposing Russian defensive weaknesses, embarrassing the Kremlin, and sowing unease among Russian civilians. The exact circumstances of the reported attack in the Bryansk region were unclear, as was the strategic purpose of such an assault. The regional governor said two civilians were killed.

The incident could escalate the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Moscow could use the allegations to justify stepping up its own attacks in the ongoing war. The attack would be another indication of intensifying pressure from Ukraine against Moscow, which could further destabilize the region. The actions could also have a negative impact on international relations - particularly between the different allies of Ukraine and Russia.

The recent incidents suggest a growing escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The timing of the attack may be a response to Moscow's recent decision to tighten controls on the border. However, it remains unclear what the strategic purpose of such an assault would be, as it would not offer Ukraine any significant military advantage. This could suggest that the attack was aimed at sowing chaos and destabilizing the region, rather than achieving a specific military objective. Regardless, the incident could be used as justification for Putin to launch a massive assault across Ukraine and convince Belarus to participate in the “special military operation.”

Belarusian Anti-Government Activists Claim Responsibility for Blowing Up Russian Military Surveillance Aircraft

Belarusian anti-government activists claim they blew up a Russian military surveillance aircraft at an airfield near the capital city of Minsk using drones. The A-50 aircraft, also known as Mainstay, is an airborne early warning aircraft with command and control capabilities and the ability to track up to 60 targets simultaneously. Although Belarus is a staunch Russian ally, it has not directly intervened in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The attack could lead to heightened security, especially along the Ukraine-Belarus border.

The attack may lead to an escalation in violence in the region, as Belarusian authorities may seek to crack down on anti-government groups and individuals. This could result in further human rights violations and repression, as has been seen in Belarus since the disputed presidential election in 2020. The incident may also have wider implications for the relationship between Russia and the West. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has already strained relations between Russia and Western countries. If Russia perceives the attack as an act of aggression, it may respond in kind, potentially leading to further escalation.

The use of drones to carry out attacks on military targets is a growing trend in modern warfare. As drones become cheaper and more widely available, their use by non-state actors and terrorist groups is likely to increase. This incident underscores the increasingly complex geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, with multiple actors and interests at play. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the involvement of Belarus, has the potential to escalate into a wider regional conflict. It is essential that all parties engage in dialogue and work towards a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis.

Serbia and Kosovo Agree to EU Plan to End Political Crisis

Kosovo and Serbia have agreed to an EU plan to normalize relations. The plan provides a basis for building much-needed trust and overcoming the legacy of the past. It allows people to move freely between Serbia and Kosovo using their own passports, IDs, and license plates. The plan also offers new economic opportunities to both sides through increased financial assistance, business cooperation, and the prospect of new investment. Furthermore, the blueprint aims to provide better jobs and improve trade by removing the need for import-export certificates.

Serbia and Kosovo have been experiencing tensions since Kosovo unilaterally broke away from Serbia in 2008. This move was recognized by many Western countries but opposed by Serbia, with the backing of Russia and China. The two countries have been engaged in EU-brokered talks since 2011, which have made little headway in recent years. Recently, tensions have flared over such matters as vehicle license plate formats and the arrest of an ethnic Serb police officer. The increased tensions had triggered fresh concern among Western leaders that a new Balkan conflict might break out just as Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its second year.

The agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to an EU-sponsored plan marks a significant step towards ending the long-standing political crisis between the two countries. However, the plan's success will depend on its implementation, which has been challenging in the past. Moreover, the Serbian nationalists who protested earlier this month and demanded Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić reject the EU plan and pull out of the talks could pose a significant threat to the plan's success. Thus, it will be essential to continue to monitor the situation in the coming months and address any potential challenges that may arise. Nonetheless, the agreement could offer new economic opportunities and better jobs, contributing to stability in the region and improving relations between the two countries.

FBI Director Confirms Lab Leak Theory of COVID-19 Origins

FBI Director Christopher Wray recently confirmed that the agency believes COVID-19 most likely originated in a Chinese government-controlled lab. This marks the first public confirmation of the FBI's classified judgment of how the pandemic virus emerged. While many scientists point out there is no evidence that it leaked from a lab, other U.S. government agencies have drawn differing conclusions to the FBI's. Meanwhile, a joint China-World Health Organization (WHO) investigation in 2021 called the lab leak theory "extremely unlikely," but its director-general has since called for a new inquiry, saying, "All hypotheses remain open and require further study." The U.S. ambassador to China also called for the country to "be more honest" about COVID's origins. Tensions in bilateral ties between the U.S. and China have spiked in the wake of the recent spy balloon saga.

Along with the FBI, The U.S. Department of Energy updated its assessment regarding the origins of Covid-19, stating that it is most likely that the virus emerged due to a laboratory accident in China. However, the determination was made with "low confidence" and has raised more questions than answers, as the department has not provided new evidence to back the claim. Four agencies and the National Intelligence Council assessed with low confidence that the virus likely jumped from animals to humans through natural exposure. One agency has assessed with moderate confidence that the pandemic was the result of a laboratory-related accident.

The Chinese government has also pushed back against the claims, urging the U.S. to respect science and facts, stop politicizing the issue, and stop its intelligence-led, politics-driven origins tracing. Efforts to understand how the pandemic started have been further complicated by China's lack of transparency. Beijing has blocked robust, long-term international field investigations and refused to allow a laboratory audit - which could bring clarity. The Chinese government has also refused to share details and data around domestic research to uncover the cause.

In light of claims by the DOE and FBI, the Senate passed a bill that would require the Biden administration to declassify all intelligence related to the Wuhan Institute of Virology and possible links to the origins of the COVID-19 virus. The bill now moves to the House, where Democrats have signaled their opposition, arguing that matters of declassification should be made by the executive branch.

Stay safe out there.