In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

Russia Launches Ukrainian Offensive, U.S. Counter to Chinese Spy Balloon Revealed:

Here are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week that Was:

• Russia-Ukraine

• Zelenskyy meets with UK Prime Minister

• Estonia believes Russia is strong enough for follow on invasions

• The big China Balloon debacle

• North Korea military parade

• The U.S. is building bases in Philippines

• More attacks on U.S. Electrical grid

• Nord Stream 2 Sabotage

Key Takeaways:

The New Russian Offensive Begins

Russia has made it no secret they want to make a big push to surround Kyiv before the one year anniversary of the invasion. They have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast. Russian sources have been reporting that conventional Russian troops are making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border with geospatial analysis confirming these reports.

This means the planned Russian offensive/counteroffensive has already begun, and this will continue until Russia has accomplished its mission of regaining territory in Eastern Ukraine. Officials in Russia are also preparing its military for a 'protracted' or extended war. This is a change from the original invasion plan. The same officials had assumed the Russian military would swiftly take over regions in Ukraine which would lead to an invasion of Kyiv and an installation of a pro-Russia government.

However, both sides face a significant obstacle: mud. The late-fall and early spring season known as "Rasputitsa" often turns the country's rural roads into quagmires, frustrating troops and tanks attempting to cross them. These frozen ground conditions are expected to give way to a thaw over the coming weeks. This could put commanders at risk of delays or missteps if they do not adjust their strategy accordingly. Analysts have indicated the Russia is quick to launch this offensive in order to make gains before the mud sets in. There is a possibility that it will force them into strategic stalemates.

The conditions have raised many unknown questions on what direction the conflict will take this time around. Evidence points toward a heightened intensity of fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the eastern side of Ukraine. For now, both sides continue reinforcing their positions in preparation for whatever may lie ahead once Mud Season officially arrives.

Moldova's Best Defense? Preparing For A Russian Invasion

Moldova, a former Soviet republic with 2.5 million people, has experienced severe economic turmoil and crisis in the last 18 months. This is in part due to power cuts resulting from Russian air attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and an influx of Ukrainian refugees. This strain, combined with rising prices of products like gas coming from Moscow, led to anti-government protests that put even more pressure on Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita’s government. This week, Gavrilita announced their resignation. Despite these challenges, there is hope for Moldova’s future. European Union leaders accepted the country as a membership candidate last year, and President Maia Sandu was elected in 2020. This enables them to start making positive changes in their economy.

When Natalia Gavrilita assumed her post in August 2021, she did so with a mandate to clean up corruption. However, many protesters believed that not enough was being done by her party, which is the Pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity. Between the power cuts and escalating gas prices from Moscow, it became too much to bear and culminated in the government stepping down amid extreme public outcry. The newly elected President Maia Sandu is optimistic about the future of Moldova. Despite challenges such as dependence on Russian gas, she believes they will be able to make it through all these difficulties together as “We believe in Moldova.”

This week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy released a statement claiming Ukrainian intelligence operatives had acquired classified Russian plans to begin an invasion of the small Eastern European nation of Moldova. 

All said, the dissolution of the Moldovan government coupled with the aftereffects of Russia's attack on neighboring Ukraine should worry the international community. There is a very real possibility that Russia uses this event as an opportunity to install a pro-Russian government. If they are successful in installing a favorable government, an invasion of Moldova will be swift and comprehensive.

Latest on the Chinese Spy Balloon

According to a senior U.S. State Department official, high-resolution imagery showed the Chinese Spy balloon was able to conduct signals intelligence collection operations. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) reportedly used the balloons for surveillance, and its equipment indicated it was meant for intelligence gathering.

What is Signals Intelligence?

Signals intelligence, or SIGINT, is the process of gathering information through the collection and analysis of signals from electromagnetic sources. These signals can include radio broadcasts, cell phone conversations, radar transmissions, and more. Signals intelligence can be used to gain insights into the activities of adversaries, identifying potential threats before they materialize, and can even provide warnings of imminent attacks. By leveraging data collected from numerous sources, SIGINT is a powerful tool in the fight against enemies both foreign and domestic.

What is Next for China-U.S. Relations?

The Biden administration believes that this is a violation of national sovereignty and international law. In response to the presence of this balloon in United States airspace, the U.S. State Department is exploring potential sanctions against Chinese entities linked with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) which supported its incursion. In addition, further efforts are being taken to protect against any information being collected by this surveillance tool and to mitigate any intelligence value it may have for China.

An investigation mission was initiated to secure debris from this balloon, and analysis is currently occurring at a Federal Bureau of Investigation laboratory in Virginia. As investigations continue, one thing is certain: The U.S. remains committed to taking strong action against threats posed by China’s surveillance activities which could potentially harm their security and those of their allies.

Mao Ning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, repeated Beijing's assertion that the balloon was an "unmanned Chinese civilian airship.” She suggested that shooting it down was an act of aggressive overreaction by the United States and a form of information warfare.

She refused to comment on the owner of the balloon or its equipment but implied that it had been operated by a company, not the Chinese government. Mao also noted that it is evidently clear who the world's number one country for spying and surveillance is in her view.

It is clear China-U.S. relations are at a tipping point leading up to the possible invasion of Taiwan by the People's Liberation Army of China.

North Korea's Succession Plan

Recent public broadcasts of Kim Jung-Un’s young daughter Kim Ju-ae have the international community speculating on the Succession Plan for leadership in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The National Intelligence Agency of South Korea identified her as the baby held by retired NBA star Dennis Rodman during a 2013 visit to Pyongyang. She has been featured in North Korean state media photos and is described as "beloved" by her father, Kim Jung-Un. Her appearance marks an important milestone in the Succession Plan without explicitly announcing it. It also showcases their dynastic ambitions concerning the future of North Korea and its fast-growing nuclear arsenal.

The North Korean regime is not a monarchy, but rather ruled by a Workers' Party congress; however, the Kim family dynasty has held power for decades since its founding after World War II. Until her recent debut in state media, domestic citizens had never seen any of Mr. Kim's children. Her appearance marks an important milestone in the succession plan without explicitly announcing it and showcases their dynastic ambitions concerning the future of North Korea and its fast-growing nuclear arsenal.

Future implications suggest that Kim Ju-ae may take over power when Kim Jong-un steps down or maybe can no longer rule due to age or declining health - which could potentially constitute a threat to international stability. It is therefore critical for world leaders and observers to pay close attention to any developments concerning Ju-ae’s development in order to prepare for potential security concerns that may arise from North Korea's succession plan moving forward.

Nord Stream Two Sabotage

Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter, has reported that the U.S. government was behind the bombings of the Nord Stream underwater gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea. According to his report, deep sea divers from the U.S. Navy planted C4 explosives that were detonated remotely by a sonar buoy released from a Norwegian Navy P8 surveillance plane. NATO’s BALTOPS 22 military exercise in June was used as a cover for this covert attack. It disabled three out of four of the pipelines and caused millions in damages. Mr. Hersh states this sabotage was likely motivated by President Biden and his foreign policy team's desire to stop Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The pipeline would increase Russia’s political control over Europe, reduce their reliance on other sources of energy, and boost their revenue.

The article further asserts, had Nord Stream 2 been operational when it was sabotaged, it would have doubled gas supply already provided by Nord Stream 1 making it much more profitable for Moscow. In order to reduce these political risks and limit economic benefits associated with the pipeline, Biden authorized his team to plan what eventually became this covert operation. In Hersh's words: The U.S. wanted to ensure that Europe could not rely on Russian energy resources for some time yet and deliberately destroyed the pipelines as part of this mission.

Seymour Hersh is an award-winning investigative journalist who has published reports on Vietnam War, Abu Ghraib scandal, Osama bin Laden's killing, and Syrian rebel's sarin gas attack on Damascus suburb which killed many civilians.

Others in the international intelligence community refute this report by Seymour Hersh. Those analysts find fault in the highly detailed reporting from a single anonymous source, which is Hersh's approach in a lot of his recent conspiracy-laden investigative reports. 

Joe Galvin, an Open Source Editor for the non-profit investigative journal The Outlaw Ocean Project, stated his concern with the report on Twitter:

The White House, the CIA, and the State Department have all denied the accusations in Seymour Hersh’s article that claims the United States was responsible for the explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines last September. Sweden and Denmark have both concluded that the pipelines were blown up deliberately, but did not specify who might be responsible. The U.S. and NATO labelled it as an 'act of sabotage', while Russia accused the West without providing evidence.

Russia's foreign ministry said that there were questions for the U.S. about its role in regards to the incident. Construction of Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021, but never put into operation due to tense relations between Moscow and Kiev at that time. 

Stay safe out there.