In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

Russia's Covert Tactics: Flying Nuclear Bombers and Creating Dissent to Escalate Conflict in Eastern Europe:

Here are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week that Was:

• Russia-Ukraine

• Western Nations sending air defense systems to Ukraine

• Possible Coup in Moldova

• Russia flies Supersonic Strategic Nuclear Bombers over Norwegian Sea

• More Balloons shot down

• China claims U.S. is the one that started it

• Iran and China meetings

• A rebuttal to Seymour Hersh’s Nord Stream sabotage claims

Key Takeaways:

Where We Stand One Week From the One Year Anniversary

Russian forces continue to conduct a series of missile strikes against infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine. This marks the latest in a string of similar strikes that have been taking place for months, underscoring Russia’s continued aggression and hostility toward Ukraine.

Military advances have been identified around Bakhmut and near Donetsk City where limited disengagements have occurred. These are supplemented by reports from Russia alleging Ukrainian reconnaissance along Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast aimed at capturing potential strategic strikes against defending Russian forces.

Also crucial is Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko’s recent threat stating if faced with an attack his forces will retaliate against Ukrainian targets. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with his Belarusian counterpart to shore up allegiances between the two countries.

Possible Coup Attempt in Moldova

On 13 February 2023, Maia Sandu, the President of Moldova, revealed details of an alleged plot by Russia to "destroy" Moldova. According to President Sandu's statement, the coup plans included attacking state buildings and taking hostages, overthrowing the country’s government and installing a puppet government, and forming an alliance between criminal gangs and exiled oligarchs.

The events unfolding in this incident suggests that there may be an upcoming threat from Russia or other parties involved with planting suspicious objects in Moldova's airspace as well as potential fan interference aimed at disrupting peaceful football matches. Thus tactical analysis is recommended to ensure air security within Moldovan airspace as well as secure measures be taken by local officials to ensure freedom from saboteurs of sporting events within the nation.

The Whole Spy Balloon Story

This week marks an increase in the number of objects shot down over U.S. airspace and surrounding countries, leaving a lot of room for speculation about what these objects could be. Officials from the Pentagon have not yet provided an official confirmation as to what these objects were, though most people are assuming that they are some kind of balloons or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The Biden Administration has yet to make any comments regarding the shootdowns, but speculation is rising that these actions were done out of an abundance of caution and not because there was a legitimate threat imminent.

The intelligence community has provided some insight into the situation. They confirmed that they had been tracking a balloon before it entered U.S. airspace and managed to jam its surveillance payload prior to the shootdown taking place. It is believed by some parties involved in reviewing this incident that shooting down every unidentified object could lead to an unintentional conflict with certain adversarial nations. However, no official statements have been made on this matter by governmental officials. It is also possible that U.S.-led shootdowns could be used to mobilize public opinion against any potential future conflicts with adversarial nations in the same way China uses them for its own political gain.

Overall, it appears that more vigilance needs to be employed when it comes to identifying and tracking foreign craft entering domestic air space, and the decision to shoot down any unidentified objects should only be taken if there is a direct threat present. Until then, continued surveillance without notable interference may be the best course of action going forward to prevent diplomatic issues from escalating further and inadvertent military entanglements from occurring.

China and Iran Solidify Ties

Recently, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping and Iran’s President Raisi met to discuss their relationship. Xi pledged to deepen ties with Iran. According to reports, China opposes external forces interfering in Iran’s internal affairs and undermining its security and stability. It is believed that both countries plan to continue discussions on countering U.S. power, as Xi is scheduled to make a diplomatic tour of Iran soon.

However, the United States has also responded to this move by Chinese authorities; State Department spokesperson Ned Price publicly urged China to influence Iran in ways that would benefit the U.S. and lower potential threats in the region, saying that would be in both Chinese and American interests.

Therefore, it appears that there is tension between both countries over this matter, although Chinese-Iranian relations are still improving steadily despite any opposition from other external forces such as the US.

Details Surrounding the Disruption of Seymore Hersh's Pipe Dream

Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter, claimed that U.S. Navy divers planted explosives on three Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea in September 2022 in a CIA operation ordered by President Joe Biden. The White House dismissed Hersh's report as false and fictional, based on a single source. He is best known for exposing the My Lai massacre, which helped end the Vietnam War, and reported on the Watergate scandal. He has written critically acclaimed books on various topics, including the Soviet downing of a South Korean passenger jet, Israel's nuclear program, and abuses at Abu Ghraib prison. He has attracted controversy with articles on a sarin nerve gas attack in Syria and the 2011 U.S. commando raid that killed Osama bin Laden, both of which were denied by the governments involved. On 8 February Hersh released a report stating the United States was behind the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, a Russian gas pipeline network that runs under the Baltic Sea. The operation was covert and kept secret until recently, causing many to speculate about its origins. The incident has raised concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia and the long-term implications for energy security in Europe.

A week later, Oliver Alexander, an Open Source analyst, disputed much of what Mr. Hersh wrote. The level of detail provided, he said, leads him to believe that Hersh's story may be fictitious. According to Hersh, it was supposedly the Biden Administration's priority that this mission remains highly secretive; thus diver graduates from the Naval Experimental diving unit were chosen instead of more prominent and visible Special Forces units. However, many tactics proposed by high-level U.S. military officials during initial planning meetings appear invented or impossible in actuality. One of those is the detail about dropped bombs with delayed fuses that were to be set off remotely. While on the surface level Hersh's report appeared to hold some credibility it became clear upon Oliver's examination that his sources likely had either no true grasp of the situation or were purposefully providing fraudulent information.

In Seymour Hersh's account of the sabotage of four Nord Stream pipelines near the German coast, there are many questions left unanswered. In particular, why did the U.S. involve Norwegian forces in this secretive operation when other options exist that might have been more covert? Additionally, Hersh fails to mention why only three of the four pipelines were destroyed and not all four if Russia was to be denied access to supply gas to Germany. It may be that with too much detail and unsubstantiated claims, Hersh's story falls short of expectations.

Stay safe out there.