In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

Secrets of DHS Domestic Intelligence Program Exposed:

Here are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week that Was:

· Russia-Ukraine

· Moldova stays on Putin’s radar

· China warns of conflict with the U.S.

· North Korea eyeing conflict with South Korea and U.S.

· U.S. may send troops to Mexico

· U.S. intelligence officials point the finger at rogue pro Ukrainian forces

· Department of Homeland Security collecting domestic intelligence

Key Takeaways:

Russia Launches Missiles as Battle of Bakhmut Continues

More than 80 Russian missiles and some exploding drones hit residential buildings and critical infrastructure across Ukraine, killing six people and leaving hundreds of thousands without heat or electricity. The attack was the largest in three weeks and put Europe’s largest nuclear plant at risk by knocking it off the power grid for nearly half of the day before it was reconnected. Ukrainian air defenses could not intercept the hypersonic Kinzhal cruise missiles that Russia launched. The Kremlin’s forces began targeting Ukraine’s power supply last October to demoralize the civilian population and compel Kyiv to negotiate peace on Moscow’s terms.

The latest attack followed Moscow's claim of Ukrainian saboteurs' incursion into the Bryansk region of western Russia, which Ukraine denied. The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes were in retaliation for this incursion. Analysts speculated that Russia may have been running low on ammunition because the attacks became less frequent. However, the latest attack demonstrates that Russia can still conduct massive and sophisticated attacks. Rafael Grossi, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, said the incident “again demonstrated how fragile and dangerous the situation is” for the plant. The attack had “no military objective, just Russian barbarism,” according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

Capabilities

• Hypersonic missiles are capable of traveling at more than five times the speed of sound, or about 6,200 km/h (3,852 mph), and can evade advanced radar systems. Kinzhals can reportedly reach speeds of up to Mach 10 (12,350 km/h or 7,674 mph), making them one of the fastest missiles in the world. Their high speed and maneuverability make them difficult to track and intercept, giving opponents little time to react. Moreover, they can carry nuclear warheads, which makes them a significant threat to national security.

Developments

• The United States has been actively developing hypersonic weapons for its Conventional Prompt Global Strike program since the early 2000s. The U.S. Congress has reported that China is also aggressively developing the technology. At the same time Iran, Israel, and South Korea have also conducted basic research on it. In April 2022, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. agreed to cooperate on hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare capabilities under a grouping known as AUKUS.

Implications

• The use of hypersonic missiles poses a significant threat to national security and regional stability. The development of hypersonic weapons by multiple countries raises concerns about a new arms race and the possibility of nuclear war. The Kinzhals attack on Ukraine has highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to this type of weapon. The lack of effective countermeasures against hypersonic missiles is a significant concern for many countries, including Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have stated that it does not have the capability to counter the Kinzhals. As more countries develop and deploy hypersonic missiles, the risk of conflict and escalation increases.

China's Anti-American Rhetoric: A Strategic Tool or a Genuine Concern

China has been using anti-American rhetoric since the founding of the People's Republic of China. It believes that the United States is implementing containment, encirclement, and suppression against them. The recent economic downturn in China has fueled the rhetoric further.

China is increasingly irate about Western aid to Ukraine, which they see as a precedent for the United States to interfere with Chinese aggression against Taiwan or other neighbors. In response, Beijing has sharpened its anti-American rhetoric.

China's anti-American rhetoric is a cause for concern as it could lead to further destabilization of the region. It is also a signal of the Chinese leadership's growing unease with the current state of affairs. China's increased emphasis on party branches and its control of business decisions could have implications for foreign companies operating in China. The recent thaw that allowed for many Hollywood releases in China is likely to be gone in the next six months. China's opposition to Western aid to Ukraine and its pro-Russian sympathies could be a precursor to further aggression in the region.

To add to the tensions between the U.S. and China, China's National People's Congress (NPC) voted unanimously to give Xi Jinping a third term as president. This makes him the country's most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. The 69-year-old leader has extended his tenure for another five-year term amid challenging economic recovery, weak demand for China's exports, and diplomatic challenges with the U.S. and its allies. Xi has become more authoritarian since taking control a decade ago, and he extended his rule for another term by doing away with presidential term limits in 2018. He faces the challenge of economic revival, but analysts warn that tighter party and state control over the private sector and confrontation with the West could hamper his success.

Mexican Cartel Issues Rare Apology for Brutal Actions: Is This the Start of a New Era?

The Gulf Cartel in Mexico issued an apology to the public and turned over the purported kidnappers of four U.S. citizens who were abducted in broad daylight. The incident occurred in Matamoros, a city in northeastern Mexico close to the U.S. border, where the Gulf Cartel is dominant. The cartel claimed that the victims were taken by mistake, and that they have taken action against those involved. However, some experts believe that the apology is an attempt to lower the heat following an international incident that stoked the wrath of the U.S. government.

Experts agree that the Gulf Cartel's apology is an unusual move that is likely motivated by a desire to avoid direct confrontation with U.S. authorities. The cartel is known for its involvement in hundreds of assassinations that rarely draw attention outside of Mexico, and they are wary of drawing further international attention to their activities. The swift response of U.S. and Mexican authorities to the abduction of U.S. citizens highlights the Gulf Cartel's fear of the United States' investigative abilities and deterrence skills.

The Gulf Cartel's apology and purported surrender of kidnappers may be an attempt to avoid further scrutiny and potential conflict with U.S. authorities. However, experts caution that the authenticity of the apology and the identity of those surrendered remains unclear. The Gulf Cartel's power and influence in Matamoros and northeastern Mexico make them a significant threat to public safety, and their activities should continue to be monitored closely.

Stay safe out there.