In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

U.S.-Russia START Treaty, Russian Hackers Hit U.S. Medical Sites, And Iranian Quadcopter Drone Attack By Israel:

Here are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week that Was:

• Russia-Ukraine

• Russian hackers hit U.S. medical sites

• The end to the START nuclear treaty

• Israel attacks Iran

• Iran joining SCO

• United States and India building a relationship

• China continues to pressure Taiwan

• Saudi Arabia wants to work with China

• Iran wants to establish bases in South America

Key Takeaways:

Russia is Planning New Major Offensive

President Vladimir Putin is expected to launch a major offensive on February 24, one year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moscow “will do everything” to make sure the world's attention is drawn away from anti-Russia events that are being planned in New York and other locations around the world. In preparation for the offensive, Kremlin forces have already begun expelling residents living near Russian-controlled front lines in both the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

Kyiv estimates that Putin has amassed up to 500,000 troops in preparation for this planned offensive. Also, several reports out of Russia detailed American involvement in the sabotage of a pipeline linking Russia and Germany. Thus, this situation has created an imminent threat of escalated violence as we approach the war's anniversary. Russia's actions have prompted Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov to warn of an onslaught on two fronts: Donbas region in the East and a South front.

Also this week, both the United States and Russia made public comments on the status of The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). START was a landmark agreement that was established in 1991 between the United States of America and the Soviet Union and later Russia. This treaty provides for the reduction of each country’s number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles, bombers, and launchers as well as 1-year data exchanges regarding deployments by both sides.

If this treaty were to end, it would have major consequences on a global scale. Firstly, it could lead to a revived arms race between countries that already possess nuclear capabilities. Without any inspections or limitations, countries may look to increase the size and scope of their nuclear arsenals in order to gain more political leverage over their adversaries. Such an increase in stockpiles would drastically raise tensions between nations and could lead to greater instability around the world.

Moreover, without any existing agreements requiring transparency or verifying compliance, it could become easier for other countries such as Iran or North Korea to secretly develop undetectable weapons of mass destruction without fear of repercussions from other nations. This would make it especially difficult for countries like the United States who rely heavily on international treaties such as START to monitor threats created by foreign entities with ill intentions.

Fingers Point to Israel in 'Quadcopter' Drone Attack on Iran

Recent reports have cited anonymous officials in placing the blame for a drone attack on an Iranian military facility in Isfahan, which occurred Saturday, to Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. These officials also claimed that multiple quadcopters were used in the strike and that no casualties or significant damage were caused by it.

Shortly after reports surfaced, U.S. officials released statements denying any involvement in Iran’s claims amid its continued efforts to reestablish the Iran Nuclear Deal.

An Analysis of Drones

Though Iran has not officially blamed Israel, they described the drones as being “quadcopters equipped with bomblets” and aired footage of what they said was drone debris from the incident. The quadcopters used are believed to be from Israeli defense company Elbit Systems’ micro-drone Lanius, which is a short-range drone designed for urban operations.

The Lanius micro-drone quadcopter is a powerful, precision-controlled unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) designed to carry out operationally relevant missions. Equipped with bomblets designed and made in Israel, it can deploy ordinances from up to 5km away. Its state of the art components make it navigable even in low visibility environments, and its two hi-tech cameras provide an enhanced bird's eye view. It gives operators full control of their mission objectives.

In contrast, Iran has sent their own Shahed-136 drones for use in Russia during the war in Ukraine. This particular model measures 11 feet by 8.2 feet with a 440 pound weight and up to 1,600-mile range capacity. It is much louder than expected at 115 mph and its payload weighs between 66 to 110 pounds - notably larger than that of the Lanius.

At this time, Israeli has not formally claimed responsibility for this operation, and no one has been able to independently verify claims about Israel’s involvement.

China's Continued Pressure on Taiwan

This was not the only provocation from China, in recent months as it had sent a record 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan at the end of December 2022. This was the largest such military exercise of last year. There were also four aircraft and three naval vessels that were detected by the Taiwanese military in late January. Chinese leader Xi Jinping also secured a third term in October 2022 and U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan's predicted there would be war between the U.S. and China by 2025.

Ma Xiaoguang, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, has established China’s intent to take over Taiwan by ‘forceful means’ if necessary on several occasions throughout January 2021. He warned foreign politicians who interact with Taiwan are “playing with fire." He also expressed Beijing's commitment to "smashing plots for Taiwan independence.”

It is important to note global opinion regarding this conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed his concern that Beijing was pursuing its goal too fast. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan expressed hope that Asia can be deterred from launching an invasion against Taiwan so as to avoid U.S.-Chinese conflict altogether with “responsible stewardship.”

Iran's Alarming Expansion: A Rising Military Presence in Latin America

The United States government is currently tracking announcements by Iran that it has deployed two military ships to Brazil. They are headed for the Panama Canal where Tehran declared to establish a military presence.

The Iranian regime-controlled news outlet Tehran Times reported that “‘Iran’s 86th flotilla warships are now sailing along the western shores of Latin America,’ the Navy second-in-command said.” This week, a Western security source reported that Iranian warships have not yet docked in Brazil. Analysts believe this should be taken very seriously due to its potential affect peace and stability throughout the region.

From an analysis of Iran’s presence over the last four decades, a multi-dimensional pattern of penetration can be identified with two distinct phases. The first phase was characterized by a gradual transition from an informal presence to a formal one. This is while they simultaneously established an infrastructure through which Iran could insert spies and other covert operatives. It was mainly facilitated under religious indoctrination that helped embed Tehran among small Shiite Islamic populations across several Latin American countries.

While the actual motives for this recent voyage remain unknown, it is clear that Tehran has utilized almost four decades of establishment to bolster its presence throughout Latin America. This resulted in substantial military activity and political and social advances that were primarily orchestrated though channels originally initiated by Hugo Chávez. Chávez facilitated further diplomatic ties with Iran.

Stay safe out there.