In-Depth Analysis From This Week Explained:

It's Been a Year Now: Russia's Intensifying Tensions, Biden's Trip To Kyiv, And China's Possible Weapon Delivery To Russia:

Here Are the Big Geopolitical Events From the Week That Was:

· Russia-Ukraine

· The end of START

· Russia’s Belarus takeover

· Moldova closer to takeover by Russia

· Update on Sweden and Finland to NATO

· China discusses sending weapons to Russia

· France Officially leaves Burkina Faso

Key Takeaways:

Remembering the Invasion: A Look at the Conflict in Ukraine One Year Later

As we highlight the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, it is important to be aware that a potential surge of Russian attacks could occur in the coming days. Ukraine has urged citizens to avoid large crowds, and schools have been asked to hold classes remotely in order to limit the potential risks.

Over the winter there was a slow-moving fight along the frontline in the southeast. With an influx of Western-supplied weapons into Ukraine, and approximately 320,000 Russian soldiers stationed there, many fear that Putin may plan an offensive timed with this anniversary. He has voiced plans to take all of the Donbas region by March. The Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group has suffered over 30,000 casualties in this last year alone - with half of these deaths reported to be recently due to fighting near Bakhmut.

The U.S. and UK Defense Ministries have noted intensifying fighting near Bakhmut despite failed offensives late 2022 and early February 2023. Speculations exist regarding possible offensives from northern and northeastern fronts as well. However, no information adequate enough supports this theory. Artillery is being utilized significantly during such assaults, leading to further casualties on both sides. Exact numbers cannot be confirmed. According to the Associated Press, some estimate Ukraine is firing up to 6,000 to 7,000 artillery shells daily – about the same that a small European country would order in a peace-time year. This is estimated to be only a third of the rounds that Russia is using.

Here Are Where Some of the Major Countries Stand One Year Later

• Belarus: A leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office reportedly lays out a detailed plan on how Russia plans to take full control over neighboring Belarus in the next decade. The document provides granular details of an annexation by political, economic, and military means. Issued in fall 2021, the document outlines an end goal: formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Amid the fighting in Ukraine, Belarus president Lukashenko said that Belarus will form new “paramilitary units” in every town or village to serve as a territorial defense force “in case of aggression." The 150,000 volunteers will reportedly be issued weapons but keep their civilian jobs.

• China: China’s foreign ministry said on February 22 that the country was not considering sending lethal support to Moscow to use in Ukraine. The ministry accused the United States and NATO of spreading falsehoods about China’s potential role in the conflict. China’s top diplomatic advisor told Putin that China and Russia need to be more flexible while facing new international circumstances. The Chinese foreign minister said on February 21 that China wants to play a role in ending the conflict in Ukraine. The foreign minister also “urge[d]… relevant countries to immediately stop adding fuel to the fire, stop shifting blames to China, and stop hyping up the discourse of Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he has not seen any official peace plan from China. The U.S. is reportedly considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to send weapons to Russia.

• European Union: The EU member states met to discuss the 10th package of sanctions against Russia. This package was passed on February 24. The EU has agreed to extend the sanctions against Belarus president Lukashenko and his inner circle for another year. The sanctions include visa restrictions and asset freezes on 195 individuals and 34 organizations in Belarus. Hungary is reportedly pushing back against some proposals, including making it easier to sanction the family members and entourage of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Hungary is also making its approval of the rollover of the EU’s existing individual sanctions list conditional on the removal of four unspecified individuals from the list. If Hungary blocks the rollover and refuses to compromise, all 1,400 currently Russian-sanctioned individuals would be delisted. Hungary is also opposing a proposal, backed by all other EU members, to prolong the extension period from six to 12 months. Lastly, the EU urged its member countries to provide more ammunition to Ukraine from their stockpiles and from any orders that they might have already placed with the defense industry.

Russia's Plans for Belarus and Moldova

The leaked document from Russia's presidential administration claiming plans to absorb Belarus by 2030 is evidence of Putin’s increasing ambition and aggressive foreign policy in the region. The document, which is reported to have been created by the Presidential Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, sets a plan to influence Belarus politically, economically, and militarily. The list sets short term goals up until 2022, medium term goals up until 2025, and long term for 2030. The purported goal of this plan is to create a 'union state' with Russia at its helm.

This plan is concerning for many reasons. Not only would it mean an increase in Russian military presence along the border between Lithuania and Poland, both NATO members, but also allow Putin to reassert control over a country that recently had contested elections leading to mass protests and targeted crackdowns on opposition candidates. Further implications include fear of potential ethnic conflict between Russians and Belarusians as well as security threats posed by new access points into NATO territories.

Multiple intelligence reports have highlighted Russian president Vladimir Putin’s desire to invoke dissent within Moldova. In response to reports from Ukrainian president Zelenskyy indicating that Russia had plans to cause unrest and destabilize the pro-EU government, Moldovan President Sandu has reportedly called for heightened security measures and drafted new laws concerning national security. The intelligence services of both Moldova and Ukraine have independently confirmed these reports. This suggests significant Russian threats and interventions in Moldova's internal affairs.

The repercussions of this discovery are huge. Not only are they a clear violation of international law, but it is also apparent that Russia has been attempting to sway Moldova away from its pro-European trajectory. If successful, this could be detrimental to the security and stability of Europe as a whole. Therefore, it is essential that all nations come together in order to protect the tenuous status quo that currently exists between them by condemning any acts of interference from hostile forces such as those attributed to Russia. This also serves to demonstrate solidarity with all countries seeking direction towards greater European integration. This is something which will no doubt be welcomed by those hoping for peace between EU member states and their neighbors who might be susceptible to Russian influence.

What is at Risk if China Arms Russia with Lethal Weapons

The prospect of China sending weapons to Russia is a highly consequential one. The implications for international security could be severe. Should the intelligence reports be true, and China chooses to proceed with such an action; it could result in long-term damages to its relationship with both the United States and Europe. The Biden administration has made it clear that supplying arms to Russia would be a 'red line' in their relationship with Beijing. Thus, if Chinese leaders were to proceed, they must weigh their options carefully.

Experts believe that while China might have some draw to sending weapons, specifically to ensure that Russian forces don't get pushed back by a U.S.-led coalition, the repercussions could seriously damage what little diplomatic relations are left between them and the West. Sending weapons would not only risk a total breakdown of their relations with countries across the globe, but it also produces effects well beyond the scope of just Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ultimately, this situation has serious potential consequences on an international level and will require careful consideration from all parties involved.

The recent warnings issued by top U.S. officials and the repercussions outlined provide insight into Washington's concerns over China's potential support of Russia in the war in Ukraine. The American government has not specified what retaliatory action it might take should Beijing proceed with providing lethal aid, but economic sanctions are a likely start. China is more closely tied to the global economy than Russia, so enacting economic sanctions would be an effective way to deter Beijing from providing arms and munitions to Moscow. Such punitive measures could also signal displeasure from countries who do not want to see China fueling a war in Ukraine while also claiming neutrality on the conflict. Primary sanctions may target Chinese companies in the military industrial complex, while further action could include secondary penalties placed on countries and entities outside of China should its aid continue.

France Officially Departs Burkina Faso

The presence of Russian mercenaries from Wagner group, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, is concerning for Western countries. The end-of-operations ceremony for French forces was presided over by local and French officers and most of their force has already left. ECOWAS, Economic Community of West African States, have maintained its sanctions on Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea due to political unrest in those states. While this has previously seemed ineffective, AU Commission chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat suggested that they must look at new strategies to counter backsliding of democracy.

Burkina Faso has been experiencing spilled over jihadist attacks from neighboring Mali since 2015. This has led to the loss of lives as well as displacement for thousands of citizens. Furthermore, with the assassination of two Doctors Without Borders employees by armed men, that organization canceled much of its work within the country. This has revealed the severe consequences of the deteriorating situation there. All these developments lead to one conclusion: stability needs to come quickly and soon if Burkina Faso is to have a safer future with less external influences deciding its fate.

Stay safe out there.